Gold demand steady, but supply growth lags on weak recycling
Gold demand stayed close to last year’s record as central banks and ETFs drove buying.
Q3 2026 recap: central banks and ETFs maintain demand
Global gold demand, including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, was 1,369 metric tons in the third quarter of 2026, just 1% below Q3 2025, according to the World Gold Council. So far in 2026, demand has reached 3,881 metric tons, nearly matching the previous year's record of 3,884 metric tons. In value terms, gold demand set a quarterly record at $566 billion, with the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) gold price averaging $4,262 per troy ounce, which is 23% higher than the same quarter in 2025.
Central banks made significant gold purchases, acquiring 321 metric tons in Q3 and bringing their year-to-date (YTD) total to 675 metric tons, a 6% increase from a year ago. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also returned to gold accumulation after declining in Q2, adding 211 metric tons in Q3. The World Gold Council suggests this was partly influenced by worries over fiscal conditions and inflation.
Retail investors showed more hesitation. Global demand for gold bars and coins fell 19% to 268 metric tons, as many waited for clearer price direction. Jewelry demand also dropped by 17% to 313 metric tons, a low in the Council’s Q3 records. Gold used for technology rose 3%, driven by AI-related manufacturing, but this remains a minor part of overall demand.
Supply growth capped by recycling slowdown
Mine production rose 3% year-on-year in Q3 to 1,071 metric tons, a record amount for any third quarter. However, overall gold supply slipped by 1% compared to last year. The key reason was recycling, which dropped by 8% to 314 metric tons, the lowest in three years. Typically, higher gold prices bring more recycling, but the World Gold Council observed that “recycling remains broadly unresponsive to high prices.”
Most new gold entering the market continues to come from mines, not recycling. Mines operate on long investment and production cycles, while recycling usually reacts more quickly to price changes. If recycling continues to lag, mines remain the main supply channel, which limits how quickly total physical supply can increase.
Implications for buyers of physical gold
Spot price is only one factor for gold buyers, especially those looking for coins or small bars. Availability and the premium over the spot price depend on physical flows and inventory. With recycling volumes low, the physical supply chain relies more on mine output, which cannot change quickly.
We see a trend where strong central bank and ETF demand, combined with weaker recycling, is keeping supply growth limited. For retail buyers, the effects on premiums and delivery times depend on local inventories and demand. These specifics are not included in the World Gold Council report, making supply conditions harder to judge market by market.
Source: Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026
This article is general information, not investment advice. Facts from other publications are their reporting, linked above.